Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official awards predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis; Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders by television editor Michael Schneider (for Emmys) and Davis (for Oscars); Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly interview series with talent and an expert roundtable discussion; and Awards Circuit Video analyzes various categories and contenders by Variety's leading awards pundits. Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provide inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races.
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UPDATED: June 23, 2022
2022 EMMYS PREDICTIONS:
OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY:
One of the biggest stars in the world, Zendaya made history by becoming the youngest and second Black woman to win lead actress drama for her work as Rue in the HBO drama show “Euphoria.” When you think she couldn’t get any better, she outdoes herself in the second season, perhaps becoming an undeniable choice as the weeks progress towards nomination voting. Along with being an executive producer, she also could be the youngest and double nominated person in Emmy history.
One of the breakout stars of the year, Britt Lower is incredibly complex and present in the Apple TV+ series “Severance” helmed by Ben Stiller. As Helly, a woman who is living two separate lives, she adds to the mystery, getting her best acting moments in the suspenseful finale. She faces less screentime than her other contenders, as she straddles the line between lead and supporting.
Egregiously nominated only once for her work as Rebecca Pearson in the NBC drama series, Mandy Moore goes out with a bang in the show’s “final chapter.” Very few television pieces are able to drum up a substantial amount of support for their final seasons a la “Schitt’s Creek” but something tells us that “This Is Us” is going to have a strong showing. Undeniably her gift in television history, Moore could be one of those benefactors with an overdue statuette.
Told through two storylines, the adult version of the soccer team that gets stranded on an island gives all deliver masterclasses in acting across the board, with the Oscar-nominated Juliette Lewis delivering some of her best work in years. Her obstacle will be not splitting votes with her other contending co-stars, Melanie Lynskey and Tawny Cypress, who also have their devoted fans for the Showtime drama.
There’s a renaissance in the industry for Lynskey, the New Zealand native who received praise for her turn in the film “Don’t Look Up” (2021), which was released around the time her work in “Yellowjackets” was being unveiled to the world. The Showtime series stands as one of her single greatest performances yet, and along with giving her all in the limited series “Candy,” it only serves as a reminder that her Shauna, is simply perfection and wonderfully orchestrated. The Critics Choice win also provides a boost.
In the awards pundit world, we consider Laura Linney, the awards whisperer, always contending, even when conventional wisdom may tell us she’s not. This is proven by her surprise win for “The Big C” and landing a surprise Oscar nom for “The Savages” (2007). However, when everyone agrees that she’s contending for another statuette, the floodgates usually open for her in a palpable way. Her work in the final season of Netflix’s “Ozark” will be a continuous topic of the conversation throughout the voting period, and summer months, which could net her another win.
The Emmy-winning actress of “Friends” is back with her work in the Apple TV+’s “The Morning Show” which netted her another nom for the first season. While the show didn’t have a large impact like its inaugural kickoff, name recognition goes a long way with the TV Academy, and Jennifer Aniston is likely to remain at the top of their minds.
The surprise winner of the first season, Jodie Comer is coming off a big year in Hollywood with acclaimed turns in films such as “The Last Duel” and “Free Guy.” Walking out of the final season of the BBC America drama show “Killing Eve” could give her, and her co-star Sandra Oh, “farewell” nominations for their beloved characters, if they don’t vote split.
Oh became the first Asian actress to be nominated in lead actress drama, for the first season, famously losing to her co-star. Coming into the conversation with the comedy series “The Chair” from Netflix, she’s doubly present on the circuit, which could push her near the top for both series.
What the industry learned from the sweeps of “The Crown” and “Schitt’s Creek” over the last two years, is the TV Academy has a hard time keeping up with “everything.” The result of this, often brings actors with multiple projects, sneaking into the conversation in various spaces, because they’re already guaranteed in another category. With Toni Collette‘s work in HBO’s “The Staircase” contending in lead actress limited, her work in the Netflix’s “Pieces of Her” could make a surprise entry.
The nomination round of voting runs from June 16 to June 27. The official nominations for the 74th Emmy Awards will be announced Tuesday, July 12.
The list of programs and potential nominees listed below is incomplete and is subject to change. The full television awards season calendar is linked here.
2021 category winner: Olivia Colman, “The Crown” (Netflix)
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
|AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:|
|3||Mandy Moore||“This Is Us”||NBC|
|6||Jennifer Aniston||“The Morning Show”||Apple TV+|
|NEXT IN LINE|
|8||Toni Collette||“Pieces of Her”||Netflix|
|9||Jodie Comer||“Killing Eve”||BBC America|
|10||Nicole Kidman||“Nine Perfect Strangers”||Hulu|
|OTHER TOP-TIER CONTENDERS|
|11||Sandra Oh||“Killing Eve”||BBC America|
|12||Britt Lower||“Severance”||Apple TV+|
|13||Reese Witherspoon||“The Morning Show”||Apple TV+|
|14||Imogen Poots||“Outer Range”||Amazon Prime Video|
|15||Carrie Coon||“The Gilded Age”||HBO|
|16||Elisabeth Moss||“Shining Girls”||Apple TV+|
|18||Mariska Hargitay||“Law & Order: Special Victims Unit”||NBC|
|19||Christine Baranski||“The Good Fight”||Paramount+|
|20||Sue Ann Pien||“As We See It”||Amazon Prime Video|
|ALSO IN CONTENTION|
|21||Sissy Spacek||“Night Sky”||Amazon Prime Video|
|22||Winona Ryder||“Stranger Things”||Netflix|
|23||Minha Kim||“Pachinko”||Apple TV+|
|26||Élodie Yung||“The Cleaning Lady”||Fox|
|28||Aunjanue Ellis||“61st Street”||AMC|
|29||Queen Latifah||“The Equalizer”||CBS|
|30||Mary J. Blige||“Power Book II: Ghost”||Starz|
|—||Alexandra Breckenridge||“Virgin River”|
|—||Amanda Collin||“Raised by Wolves”||HBO|
|—||Anna Paquin||“Flack”||Amazon Prime Video|
|—||Annalisa Cochrane||“One of Us is Lying”|
|—||Annie Murphy||“Kevin Can F**k Himself”||AMC|
|—||Anya Chalotra||“The Witcher”||Netflix|
|—||Ashley Romans||“Y: The Last Man”|
|—||Brooke Elliott||“Sweet Magnolias”|
|—||Brooklynn Prince||“Home Before Dark”|
|—||Camila Mendes||“Riverdale”||The CW|
|—||Cecilia Suárez||“Promised Land”|
|—||Daniella Pineda||“Cowboy Bebop”||Netflix|
|—||Darby Stanchfield||“Locke & Key”||Netflix|
|—||Dawn-Lyen Gardner||“Queen Sugar”||OWN|
|—||Demetria McKinney||“A House Divided”|
|—||Diane Lane||“Y: The Last Man”|
|—||Dina Shihabi||“Archive 81”|
|—||Dominique Tipper||“The Expanse”||Amazon Prime Video|
|—||Ellen Pompeo||“Grey’s Anatomy”||ABC|
|—||Erana James||“The Wilds”|
|—||Esmé Creed-Miles||“Hanna”||Amazon Prime Video|
|—||Freema Agyeman||“New Amsterdam”||NBC|
|—||Freya Allan||“The Witcher”||Netflix|
|—||Frida Gustavsson||“Vikings: Valhalla”|
|—||Geffri Maya||“All American: Homecoming”|
|—||Golshifteh Farahani||“Invasion”||Apple TV+|
|—||Heather Headley||“Sweet Magnolias”|
|—||Javicia Leslie||“Batwoman”||The CW|
|—||Jennifer Beals||“The L Word: Generation Q”||Showtime|
|—||JoAnna Garcia Swisher||“Sweet Magnolias”|
|—||Jordan Alexander||“Gossip Girl”||HBO|
|—||Katee Sackhoff||“Another Life”|
|—||Katherine Moennig||“The L Word: Generation Q”||Showtime|
|—||Katheryn Winnick||“Big Sky”||ABC|
|—||Kelli O’Hara||“The Accidental Wolf”|
|—||Lauren Ambrose||“Servant”||Apple TV+|
|—||Leila George||“Animal Kingdom”||TNT|
|—||Leisha Hailey||“The L Word: Generation Q”||Showtime|
|—||Lili Simmons||“Power Book IV: Force”||Starz|
|—||Lou Llobell||“Foundation”||Apple TV+|
|—||Madelyn Cline||“Outer Banks”|
|—||Madison Lintz||“Bosch: Legacy”||Amazon Prime Video|
|—||Margherita Mazzucco||“My Brilliant Friend: Those Who Leave and Those Who Stay”||HBO|
|—||Marianly Tejada||“One of Us is Lying”|
|—||Marietta Sirleaf||“Good Girls”|
|—||Maura Tierney||“American Rust”||Showtime|
|—||Mia Healey||“The Wilds”|
|—||Mimi Rogers||“Bosch: Legacy”|
|—||Mireille Enos||“Hanna”||Amazon Prime Video|
|—||Molly Parker||“Lost in Space”||Netflix|
|—||Morena Baccarin||“The Endgame”||CBS|
|—||Mouna Traoré||“The Porter”|
|—||Naomie Harris||“The Man Who Fell to Earth”||Showtime|
|—||Nina Arianda||“Goliath”||Amazon Prime Video|
|—||Niv Sultan||“Tehran”||Apple TV+|
|—||Octavia Spencer||“Truth Be Told”||Apple TV+|
|—||Patina Miller||“Power Book III: Raising Kanan”||Starz|
|—||Pollyanna McIntosh||“The Walking Dead: World Beyond”||AMC|
|—||Rachel Keller||“Tokyo Vice”||HBO|
|—||Rachel Shenton||“All Creatures Great and Small (MASTERPIECE)”|
|—||Rebecca Romijn||“Star Trek: Strange New Worlds”|
|—||Rosamund Pike||“The Wheel of Time”||Amazon Prime Video|
|—||Rose Rollins||“Long Slow Exhale”|
|—||Roselyn Sánchez||“Fantasy Island”|
|—||Rutina Wesley||“Queen Sugar”||OWN|
|—||Ryan Michelle Bathé||“The Endgame”||CBS|
|—||Sarah Pidgeon||“The Wilds”|
|—||Sonequa Martin-Green||“Star Trek: Discovery”||Paramount+|
|—||Sophia Bush||“Good Sam”|
|—||Stefanie Scott||“The Girl in the Woods”|
|—||Suranne Jones||“Gentleman Jack”||HBO|
|—||Whitney Peak||“Gossip Girl”||HBO|
|—||Willa Fitzgerald||“Reacher”||Amazon Prime Video|
AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Lead Actress Drama)
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known simply as the Emmys, is television’s most prestigious artistic award. There are many records held for both wins and nominations in the near eight decades.
For wins: Tyne Daly and Michael Learned have the most awards in this category with four, while Barbara Bain, Kathy Baker, Edie Falco and Loretta Young all have three each. “Cagney & Lacey” is the series with the most awards in this category, with six.
For nominations: Angela Lansbury has the most nominations in this category with 12, which were all consecutive, failing to win. The next most nominated actors are Sharon Gless, Mariska Hargitay, Michael Learned and Julianna Margulies, with eight apiece.
“Cagney & Lacey” and “Murder, She Wrote” are the series with the most nominations in this category, with 12 each.
2022 Primetime Emmy Awards Predictions
2022 Creative Arts Emmys Predictions
About the Primetime Emmy Awards (Emmys)
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors and various artisans and executives.
- The 74th Emmy Awards will take place on Monday, Sept. 12, and air on NBC.