Final Emmy Predictions: Creative Arts Night One Will be Dominated by Barack Obama, Joanna Gaines and ‘Arcane’

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19 mins read

The first night of the 2022 Creative Arts Emmy Awards is taking place on Saturday, Sept. 3, and we’ll see where the Primetime ceremony could be heading based on the first wave of winners.

With an evening that features categories for animated program, reality host, documentaries and short form, we could get a strong sense of where some of the support lies for the main ceremony on Monday, Sept. 12.

There are significant history-making moments that can take place.

Barack Obama could become the second U.S. president to win an Emmy for outstanding narrator for Netflix’s “Our Great National Parks.” Dwight Eisenhower won in 1956, while still in office when he picked up the Governors Award “for his use and encouragement of television.”

If Obama wins, he’ll be halfway to EGOT status after netting two Grammys for best spoken word album for “Dreams from My Father” (2006) and “The Audacity of Hope: Thoughts on Reclaiming the American Dream” (2008). Other presidents that have won Grammys include Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter.

Netflix could be the big winner of the first night of honors, as the streamer is projected to take home nine statuettes, including outstanding short form comedy, drama or variety series for “I Think You Should Leave with Tim Robinson” and critically acclaimed and fan-favorite series “Arcane” in animated program. The projected big night could also have up to five more Emmy wins land in its favor, based on the predictions.

Other notable races to keep an eye on are the reality races that could see reigning champ “RuPaul’s Drag Race: Untucked” bested by the heartwarming “Love on the Spectrum U.S.” for unstructured reality. In the structured reality category, I’m going on a limb and foreseeing Chip and Joanna Gaines walking away with their first Emmy for “Fixer Upper: Welcome Home.” The power couple could be unseated by either “Queer Eye” or “Shark Tank,” which would become the most awarded show in the category’s history.

Finally, we’ll see if the Will Smith slap helps the 94th Oscars squeak past Norman Lear or the Super Bowl Halftime show or if John Oliver should prepare multiple speeches since his show is nominated in the writing variety lineups.

Check out the final predictions for Night One of the Creative Arts ceremony below. The forecasts for Night Two will be revealed on Friday.

Read Variety’s Awards Circuit predictions to keep up with the latest Emmy and Oscar race updates.

Netflix

Outstanding Animated Program

Will win: ”Arcane” (Netflix)

Episode: “When These Walls Come Tumbling Down” – Christian Linke (executive producer/story by), Marc Merrill (executive producer), Brandon Beck (executive producer), Jane Chung (executive producer), Thomas Vu (executive producer), Jerôme Combe (co-executive producer), Melinda Wunsch Dilger (co-executive producer), Pascal Charrue (co-executive producer/directed by), Arnaud Delord (co-executive producer/directed by), Alex Yee (co-executive producer/directed by), Ash Brannon (co-executive producer/story by), Conor Sheehy (story by), Barthelemy Maunoury (animation director), David Lyerly (voice director)

Could win: “Rick and Morty” (Adult Swim)

Outstanding Casting for a Reality Program

Will win: “Love on the Spectrum U.S.” (Netflix)

Casting directors: Laura Ritchie, Kat Elmore and Jeffrey Marx

Could win: “Lizzo’s Watch Out for the Big Grrrls” (Amazon Prime Video)

Outstanding Character Voice-Over Performance

Will win: Maya Rudolph, “Big Mouth” (Netflix)

Episode: “A Very Big Mouth Christmas” as Connie the Hormone Monstress

Could win: Chadwick Boseman, “What If…?” (Disney+)

Outstanding Choreography for Variety or Reality Programming

Will win: “Step Into… The Movies With Derek and Julianne Hough” (ABC)

Episode: “Moulin Rouge – Roxanne” – Tessandra Chavez, Derek Hough

Could win: “Dancing with the Stars” (ABC)

Outstanding Cinematography for a Nonfiction Program

Will win: “Our Great National Parks” (Netflix)

Episode: “Chilean Patagonia” – Christiaan Muñoz-Salas and Ignacio Walker

Could win: “100 Foot Wave” (HBO)

Outstanding Cinematography for a Reality Program

Will win: “Life Below Zero” (National Geographic)

Episode: “Fire in the Sky” – Danny Day, Michael Cheeseman and Simeon Houtman

Could win: “Deadliest Catch” (Discovery)

Outstanding Commercial

Will win: “Teenage Dream” (Sandy Hook Promise) – BBDO New York, Ad Agency; Smuggler, Production Company

Could win: “Detectives” (Apple iPhone 13 Pro)

Outstanding Directing for a Documentary/Nonfiction Program

Will win: “The Beatles: Get Back” (Disney+) – Peter Jackson

Episode: “Part 3: Days 17-22”

Could win: “We Need to Talk About Cosby” (Showtime) – W. Kamau Bell

Outstanding Directing for a Reality Program

Will win: “Lizzo’s Watch Out for the Big Grrls” (Amazon Prime Video) – Nneka Onuorah

Episode: “Naked”

Could win: “RuPaul’s Drag Race” (VH1) – Nick Murray

Outstanding Directing for a Variety Series

Will win: “Saturday Night Live” (NBC) – Don Roy King and Liz Patrick

Episode: “Host: Billie Eilish”

Could win: “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (HBO) – Paul Pennolino and Christopher Werner

Outstanding Directing for a Variety Special

Will win: “Jerrod Carmichael: Rothaniel” (HBO) – Bo Burnham

Could win: “The Pepsi Super Bowl LVI Halftime Show Starring Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, Mary J. Blige, Eminem, Kendrick Lamar and 50 Cent” (NBC) – Hamish Hamilton

Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Series

Will win: “The Beatles: Get Back” (Disney+) – Paul McCartney, Ringo Starr, Yoko Ono Lennon and Olivia Harrison, producers; Peter Jackson, Clare Olssen and Jonathan Clyde, produced by

Could win: “We Need to Talk About Cosby” (Showtime)

Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special

Will win: “Lucy and Desi” (Amazon Prime Video) – Michael Rosenberg, Justin Wilkes, Jeanne Elfant Festa, Nigel Sinclair, Amy Poehler and Mark Monroe, produced by

Could win: “George Carlin’s American Dream” (HBO) – Teddy Leifer, Judd Apatow, Michael Bonfiglio and Kelly Carlin, executive producers; Joe Beshenkovsky, co-executive producer; Amanda Glaze, supervising producer; Wayne Federman, producer

Outstanding Exceptional Merit in Documentary Filmmaking

Will win: “Frederick Douglass: In Five Speeches” (HBO) – Henry Louis Gates Jr., Dyllan McGee, Nancy Abraham, Lisa Heller and Sara Rodriguez, executive producers; Oluwaseun Babalola, producer

Could win: “Changing the Game” (Hulu)

Outstanding Host for a Reality or Competition Program

Will win: RuPaul, “RuPaul’s Drag Race” (VH1)

Could win: Padma Lakshmi, “Top Chef” (Bravo)

Outstanding Hosted Nonfiction Series or Special

Will win: “The Problem with Jon Stewart” (Apple TV+) – Jon Stewart, executive producer/host; Brinda Adhikari, James Dixon and Richard Plepler, executive producers; Chris McShane, co-executive producer; Lorrie Baranek, supervising producer; Caity Gray, producer

Could win: “Stanley Tucci: Searching for Italy” (CNN)

Outstanding Individual Achievement in Animation

Will win: “The Boys Presents: Diabolical” (Amazon Prime Video)

Episode: “Boyd in 3D” – Lexy Naut (storyboard artist)

Could win: “Love, Death & Robots” (Netflix)

Outstanding Lighting Design/Lighting Direction for a Variety Series

Will win: “America’s Got Talent” (NBC) – Noah Mitz, Michael Berger, William Gossett, Ryan Tanker, Matt Benson, Patrick Brazil, Scott Chmielewski

Episode: “Finale Results”

Could win: “Dancing with the Stars” (ABC)

Outstanding Lighting Design/Lighting Direction for a Variety Special

Will win: “Adele One Night Only” (CBS) – Noah Mitz, Bryan Klunder, Patrick Boozer, Patrick Brazil, Matthew Cotter

Could win: “Annie Live!” (NBC)

Outstanding Makeup for a Variety, Nonfiction or Reality Program

Already awarded: *TIE* – “Legendary” (HBO) – Tonia Green, Tyson Fountaine, Sean Conklin, Marcel Banks, Jennifer Fregozo, Silvia Leczel, Glen Alen – and “We’re Here” (HBO) – Jeremy “6” Austin, Martin de Luna Jr. “Lushious Massacr”, Tyler “Laila McQueen” Devlin

Outstanding Music Composition for a Documentary Series or Special (Original Dramatic Underscore)

Will win: “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu) – Siddhartha Khosla

Episode: “The Boy from 6B”

Could win: “Severance” (Apple TV+) – Theodore Shapiro

Outstanding Music Direction

Will win: “The Pepsi Super Bowl LVI Halftime Show Starring Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, Mary J. Blige, Eminem, Kendrick Lamar and 50 Cent” (NBC) – Adam Blackstone

Could win: “43rd Annual Kennedy Center Honors” (CBS) – Rickey Minor

Outstanding Narrator

Will win: Barack Obama, “Our Great National Parks” (Netflix)

Episode: “A World of Wonder”

Could win: David Attenborough, “The Mating Game” (Discovery+)

Outstanding Picture Editing for a Nonfiction Program

Will win: “The Beatles: Get Back” (Disney+)

Episode: “Part 3: Days 17-22” – Jabez Olssen

Could win: “The Tinder Swindler” (Netflix)

Outstanding Picture Editing for a Structured Reality or Competition Program

Will win: “RuPaul’s Drag Race” (VH1)

Episode: “Big Opening #1” – Jamie Martin, Paul Cross, Ryan Mallick and Michael Roha

Could win: “Lizzo’s Watch Out for the Big Grrrls” (Amazon Prime Video)

Outstanding Picture Editing for an Unstructured Reality Program

Will win: “Life Below Zero” (National Geographic)

Episode: “Fire in the Sky” – Michael Swingler, Tony Diaz, Matt Edwards and Jennifer Nelson

Could win: “Love on the Spectrum U.S.” (Netflix)

Outstanding Picture Editing for Variety Programming

Will win: “A Black Lady Sketch Show” (HBO)

Episode: “Save My Edges, I’m a Donor!” – Stephanie Filo, Bradinn French, Taylor Joy Mason and S. Robyn Wilson

Could win: “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (HBO)

Outstanding Production Design for a Variety Special

Will win: “The Oscars” (ABC) – David Korins (production designer), Margaux Lapresle (art director)

Could win: “Live In Front Of A Studio Audience: The Facts Of Life And Diff’rent Strokes” (ABC)

Outstanding Production Design for a Variety, Reality or Competition Series

Will win: “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)

Episode: “Host: Kim Kardashian” – Eugene Lee, Akira Yoshimura, Keith Ian Raywood, N. Joseph DeTullio, Melissa Shakun

Could win: “RuPaul’s Drag Race” (VH1)

Outstanding Short Form Animated Program

Will win: “The Boys Presents: Diabolical” (Amazon Prime Video)

Episode: “John and Sun-Hee” – Simon Racioppa, Eric Kripke, Seth Rogen, Evan Goldberg, James Weaver, Neal H. Moritz, Pavun Shetty, Ori Marmur, Ken F. Levin, Jason Netter, Garth Ennis, Darick Robertson, Michaela Starr, Loreli Alanís, Chris Prynoski, Shannon Prynoski and Ben Kalina, executive producers; Andy Samberg, written by; Steve Ahn, directed by; Giancarlo Volpe, supervising director; Meredith Lane, voice director

Could win: “Robot Chicken” (Adult Swim)

Outstanding Short Form Comedy, Drama or Variety Series

Will win: “I Think You Should Leave with Tim Robinson” (Netflix) – Zach Kanin, Tim Robinson, Akiva Schaffer, Ali Bell, Alex Bach and Alice Mathias, executive producers

Could win: “Carpool Karaoke: The Series” (Apple TV+)

Outstanding Short Form Nonfiction or Reality Series

Will win: “Full Frontal with Samantha Bee Presents: Once Upon a Time in Late Night” (TBS) – Samantha Bee, host/executive producer; Allana Harkin, executive producer; Elisa Kreisinger, supervising producer; Caroline Dunphy and Anthony Zaccone, producers

Could win: “Between the Scenes – The Daily Show” (Comedy Central)

Outstanding Sound Editing for a Nonfiction or Reality Program (Single or Multi-Camera)

Will win: “McCartney 3,2,1” (Hulu)

Episode: “The People We Loved Were Loving Us!” – Jonathan Greber, Leff Lefferts, Bjorn Ole Schroeder, E. Larry Oatfield, Kim Foscato

Could win: “The Beatles: Get Back” (Disney+)

Outstanding Sound Mixing for a Nonfiction or Reality Program (Single or Multi-Camera)

Will win: “The Beatles: Get Back” (Disney+) – Michael Hedges, Brent Burge, Alexis Feodoroff and Giles Martin

Could win: “McCartney 3,2,1” (Hulu)

Outstanding Sound Mixing for a Variety Series or Special

Will win: “The Pepsi Super Bowl LVI Halftime Show Starring Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, Mary J. Blige, Eminem, Kendrick Lamar and 50 Cent” (NBC) – Thomas Holmes, Alex Guessard, Dave Natale, Tom Pesa, Christian Schrader, Pablo Munguia

Could win: “The 64th Annual Grammy Awards” (CBS)

Outstanding Structured Reality Program

Will win: “Fixer Upper: Welcome Home” (Magnolia) – winners and nominees to be determined

Could win: “Queer Eye” (Netflix)

Outstanding Technical Direction, Camerawork, Video Control for a Series

Will win: “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (HBO) – Dave Saretsky, Dante Pagano, John Harrison, Rich Freedman, Ken Thompson, Yayo Vang, Elizabeth Cavanagh, Wyatt Maker, John Schwartz, Augie Yuson

Could win: “The Voice” (NBC)

Outstanding Technical Direction, Camerawork, Video Control for a Special

Will win: “One Last Time: An Evening with Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga” (CBS) – Lori Gallati, Rob Balton, Jerry Cancel, Eli Clarke, Robert Del Russo, Dave Driscoll, Jay Kulick, Jeff Latonero, Lyn Noland, Mark Renaudin, Carlos Rios, Jim Scurti, Tim Quigley, Dan Zadwarny, J.M. Hurley

Could win: “Adele One Night Only” (CBS)

Outstanding Unstructured Reality Program

Will win: “Love on the Spectrum U.S.” (Netflix) – Cian O’Clery and Karina Holden, executive producers; Stephanie Haber, supervising producer

Could win: “RuPaul’s Drag Race: Untucked” (VH1)

Outstanding Variety Special (Live)

Will win: “Live in Front of a Studio Audience: The Facts of Life and Diff’rent Strokes” (CBS) – Norman Lear, Brent Miller, Jimmy Kimmel, Will Ferrell, Justin Theroux, Kerry Washington and James Burrows, executive producers; Eric Cook, co-executive producer; James Dixon, producer

Could win: “The Pepsi Super Bowl LVI Halftime Show Starring Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, Mary J. Blige, Eminem, Kendrick Lamar and 50 Cent” (NBC)

Outstanding Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)

Will win: “Norm Macdonald: Nothing Special” (Netflix) – Norm Macdonald, Lori Jo Hoekstra, Marc Gurvitz and John Irwin, executive producers; Casey Spira, co-executive producer

Could win: “Dave Chappelle: The Closer” (Netflix)

Outstanding Writing for a Nonfiction Program

Will win: “The Andy Warhol Diaries” (Netflix)

Episode: “Shadows: Andy & Jed” – Andrew Rossi

Could win: “How To with John Wilson” (HBO)

Outstanding Writing for a Variety Series

Will win: “A Black Lady Sketch Show” (HBO) – Tracey Ashley, Robin Thede, Alrinthea Carter, Michelle Davis, Sonia Denis, Jonterri Gadson, Chloé Hilliard, Shenovia Large and Natalie McGill

Could win: “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (HBO)

Outstanding Costumes for Variety, Nonfiction or Reality Programming

Already awarded: “We’re Here” – “Evansville, Indiana” (HBO)

Episode: Casey Caldwell, Diego Montoya, Joshua “Domino” Schwartz, Marco Marco, Patryq Howell

Outstanding Hairstyling for a Variety, Nonfiction or Reality Program

Already awarded: “Annie Live!” (NBC) – Mia Neal, Leah Loukas

 

Final Emmy Predictions: Creative Arts Night One Will be Dominated by Barack Obama, Joanna Gaines and ‘Arcane’

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