In some years, the Best Picture race finds just two or three films vying for the last slot. In other years, there is a potential laundry list of movies trying to make the cut. 2024 looks like it will be somewhat (and an emphasis on “somewhat”) closer to the latter. The one thing we know for sure is that the “Barbeheimer” duo of “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” are pretty safe Best Picture nominee bets. And that will make both the Academy and broadcast partner ABC very happy.
Beyond those two blockbusters, the safest Best Picture nominee selections include Venice Golden Lion winner “Poor Things” as well as Cannes players “Killers of the Flower Moon” and Palme d’Or winner “Anatomy of a Fall.” Then things get slightly trickier. Another Cannes favorite, “The Zone of Interest,” should make the cut. Alexander Payne’s comeback, “The Holdovers,” was a hit at Telluride with a ton of Academy members there to spread good buzz and it’s hard to imagine Netflix not getting “Maestro” across the nomination finish line. “Past Lives” was the rage out of Sundance, but didn’t exactly enjoy a ton of industry buzz during its summer release (although its $10.9 million domestic box office is a good sign).
Then there is “The Color Purple,” the Broadway musical adaptation of Alice Walker‘s novel that is returning to the screen with Tony Award winner Danielle Brooks but hasn’t been screened yet. “All of Us Strangers” was another Telluride hit that has struck a chord with many and could be a quiet nominee in the wings waiting to pounce. And then there is “Air,” which along with TIFF Audience Award winner “American Fiction,” is one of two crowd pleasers in Amazon MGM Studios‘ stable.
At publication, “The Iron Claw,” “The Boys in the Boat,” “Napoleon” and “Freud’s Last Session” had not screened for press or guild members. [Posted September 28]
LIKELY
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Anatomy of a Fall”
“Barbie”
ALMOST THERE
“Zone of Interest”
“The Holdovers”
“Maestro”
“Past Lives”
“The Color Purple”*
“All of Us Strangers”
“Air”
POSSIBLE
“American Fiction”
“Dumb Money”
“Origin”
“May December”
“Spider-Man: Across the Spiderverse”
“Ferrari”*
“The Iron Claw”*
“Saltburn”
LONGSHOTS
“Asteroid City”
“Napoleon”
“Priscilla”
“The Bikeriders”
“The Boys in the Boat”*
“Freud’s Last Session”*
*not screened at publication
